Engaged public may lengthen election nominations

Published: January 17, 2008

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MANCHESTER, N.H. (BP)—Comeback victories for Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire could lead to lengthy nominating processes for both parties stretching well past Super Tuesday, Richard Land believes.

The president of the Southern Baptist Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission made the comments after McCain won the Republican New Hampshire primary Jan. 8 with a comeback victory over Mitt Romney and Clinton won on the Democratic side, edging Barack Obama. McCain trailed in New Hampshire polls until the final days of December while Clinton trailed in literally every poll the last two days of the race.

Just five days earlier in the Iowa caucuses, Clinton had finished third, McCain fourth. As in Iowa, the turnout in New Hampshire set a new record, with more than 525,000 people voting, topping the previous record of 396,000 for a primary set in 2000, the Associated Press reported.

"Once again, the significantly increased turnout shows that the American population is more engaged in this election cycle than many in the past," Land said. "That can only be good news for the country. It is also clear that neither party is going to come close to determining its nominee until at least Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, and maybe well beyond that date."

To many, Clinton's victory was surprising, if not shocking. Obama, riding a wave of momentum from his Iowa victory, led in the final seven New Hampshire pre-election polls by an average of 8 percentage points but ended up losing a tight race to Clinton, 39-37 percent.

On the Republican side, McCain edged Romney 37-32 percent, with Iowa winner Mike Huckabee finishing third at 11 percent. The GOP has had three different winners in its three races; Romney won Saturday's Wyoming caucuses. (The Democrats don't hold their caucuses there until March.)

More than 20 states will vote on Feb. 5, although several states will have their say before then. This story went to press before the Jan. 15 primaries in Michigan. Due to a dispute between national and state Democratic officials over the primary calendar, Obama and John Edwards withdrew their names from the ballot, meaning Democrats there have only two real choices: Clinton and "uncommitted." It's even possible the Michigan delegates won't be seated at the Democratic National Convention.

On Jan. 19 Republicans will hold their primary in South Carolina the same day both parties hold caucuses in Nevada. Democrats in South Carolina will vote Jan. 26, with the Florida primary for both parties taking place Jan. 29, and the Maine caucuses for Republicans following on Feb. 1, the final contest before Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. Rudy Giuliani, who has led in national polls for months but now is tied or even trailing McCain and Huckabee, is banking on winning Florida and performing well on Super Tuesday.

McCain won the New Hampshire primary in 2000 before eventually losing the nomination to George W. Bush. He hopes to continue his momentum this time.

"Tonight, we have taken a step, but only the first step toward repairing the broken politics of the past and restoring the trust of the American people in their government," McCain said during his victory speech. "The people of New Hampshire have told us again that they do not send us to Washington to serve our self-interest, but to serve theirs. They don't send us to fight each other for our own political ambitions, but to fight together our real enemies."

Based on polls, Clinton had appeared to be out of the New Hampshire race, and some media pundits even speculated her campaign would fall apart after a loss. The New Hampshire victory changed all that.

"[L]et's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me," she said during her victory speech. "For all the ups and downs of this campaign, you helped remind everyone that politics isn't a game. This campaign is about people—about making a difference in your lives. [It's] about making sure that everyone in this country has the opportunity to live up to his or her God-given potential."

Huckabee went into the New Hampshire primary knowing he likely wouldn't finish in the top two, and he said Jan. 8 he was "pretty happy" with a third-place finish.

"We're going to be back in New Hampshire because after we secure the nomination we've got to come up here and make sure we carry New Hampshire," Huckabee said to cheering supporters.

A poll of Michigan Republican voters released Jan. 9 showed Huckabee at 23 percent, Romney at 22 percent and McCain at 18 percent. It was conducted among 300 GOP voters on the two nights prior to the New Hampshire primary by the Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor Research. Romney's father was governor of Michigan in the 1960s.