New study explores church health

NEW ORLEANS (BP)–For some 20 years, a disturbing statistic has left its mark on Southern Baptists –70 percent of Southern Baptist churches are plateaued or declining. A new study now has examined whether the statistic remains true.

The new study, led by Bill Day, associate director of New Orleans Baptist Theological Seminary’s Leavell Center for Evangelism and Church Health, ranked congregations in the Southern Baptist Convention according to frequently used definitions for growing, declining and plateaued churches. Growing churches are those whose total membership increased at least 10 percent over five years, while declining churches are those whose total membership decreased at least 10 percent over five years. A plateaued church is one that is in neither the growing nor the declining category.

From 1978 to 1983, the Sunday School Board (now LifeWay Christian Resources) found that 30.5 percent of churches were growing, 51.9 percent were plateaued and 17.6 were in decline. In the years studied by the Leavell Center, 1998—2003, 30.3 percent of churches were growing. And though that statistic has remained basically unchanged for 20 years, the number of declining Southern Baptist churches has increased by 6 percent from 17.6 percent to 23.9 percent. Plateaued churches now compromise 45.8 percent of all Southern Baptist churches.

According to the SBC’s Web site, there are more than 42,000 Southern Baptist churches in the United States. Using the Leavell Center’s findings, fewer than 13,000 of them are growing churches, meaning 70 percent of Southern Baptist churches are still plateaued or declining.

However, there are some bright spots among the statistics. The study found a few churches that recorded enormous growth between 1998 and 2003. Percentage growth in these churches ranged from 24.9 percent in Orlando’s First Baptist Church to a whopping 3,122.6 percent in Stonegate Baptist Church in Midland, Texas.

Day outlined a potential new standard for a healthy growing church during a meeting last year.

* a 10 percent total membership growth over five years.
* at least one baptism for the first and last years of the study.
* a member to baptism ratio of 35 or less to one in the final year of the study.
* conversions accounting for at least 25 percent of the total membership growth during the final year of the study.

Using the proposed definition, only 11 percent of all Southern Baptist churches (or little more than 4,600) qualify as healthy and growing.

Those interested in obtaining a copy of the study may contact Bill Day at the Leavell Center by phone at (504) 282-4455, ext. 3320, or by e-mail at bday@nobts.edu.